Fit an offset and reserve a fourth record
A constant measurement offset bends a logarithm of the raw readings. The synthetic response is y=Ae^(−t/τ)+B, with amplitude, time constant and offset all unknown to the analyst. Three readings at independently exact times 0,1,2 s calibrate those three parameters; a fourth at 3 s must remain fresh.
Learning outcome: Fit only the first three readings before revealing the fourth. Record the offset-sensitive raw-log mistake and compare it with the difference-ratio solution. Perturb all three calibration readings within their bounds, preserve their shared roles in numerator and denominator, and retain the endpoint interval.
Starting recap
Review charge continuity, definite integrals, first-order differential equations, initial conditions and signed source work. Distinguish displayed time from physical time.
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Try
For τ=1 s and B=0.5 V, the three calibration readings are 4.5, approximately 1.971518 and 1.041341 V. Differences recover r=1/e, amplitude 4 V and offset 0.5 V. The fresh prediction at 3 s is 0.5+4e^(−3)≈0.699148 V; agreement tests the fitted response but cannot exclude every alternative mechanism.
Open the experimentPredict
Which record is fresh validation after fitting A, B and τ from times 0,1,2 s?
Experiment
Fit only the first three readings before revealing the fourth. Record the offset-sensitive raw-log mistake and compare it with the difference-ratio solution. Perturb all three calibration readings within their bounds, preserve their shared roles in numerator and denominator, and retain the endpoint interval.
Fit an offset without consuming the validation record
Worked teaching model · synthetic values · Synthetic reading y(t)=4 exp(−t/tau)+B. The analyst does not know amplitude, offset or tau: readings at exact times 0,1,2 s calibrate all three. The 3 s record is fresh validation. Independent bounded calibration-reading errors ±0.01 V, not random errors or confidence levels. No gain/clock uncertainty in this recipe.
Reset keeps your prediction, captures and practice history.
Three calibration times and one fresh time
Unlike graph quantities rescale independently; read units and values, not screen angles. 1: fitted response, not new observations (solid).2: fresh observed record (open-circle marked location). Joined curves show the supplied model, not additional observations.
Equivalent numerical coordinates for Three calibration times and one fresh time
fitted response, not new observations
| time (s) | reading (V) |
|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 |
| 0.0375 | 4.352778 |
| 0.075 | 4.210974 |
| 0.1125 | 4.074389 |
| 0.15 | 3.942832 |
| 0.1875 | 3.816116 |
| 0.225 | 3.694065 |
| 0.2625 | 3.576505 |
| 0.3 | 3.463273 |
| 0.3375 | 3.354208 |
| 0.375 | 3.249157 |
| 0.4125 | 3.147973 |
| 0.45 | 3.050513 |
| 0.4875 | 2.95664 |
| 0.525 | 2.866221 |
| 0.5625 | 2.779131 |
| 0.6 | 2.695247 |
| 0.6375 | 2.614449 |
| 0.675 | 2.536626 |
| 0.7125 | 2.461666 |
| 0.75 | 2.389466 |
| 0.7875 | 2.319923 |
| 0.825 | 2.25294 |
| 0.8625 | 2.188422 |
| 0.9 | 2.126279 |
| 0.9375 | 2.066423 |
| 0.975 | 2.008769 |
| 1.0125 | 1.953238 |
| 1.05 | 1.899751 |
| 1.0875 | 1.848232 |
| 1.125 | 1.79861 |
| 1.1625 | 1.750814 |
| 1.2 | 1.704777 |
| 1.2375 | 1.660434 |
| 1.275 | 1.617724 |
| 1.3125 | 1.576585 |
| 1.35 | 1.536961 |
| 1.3875 | 1.498795 |
| 1.425 | 1.462034 |
| 1.4625 | 1.426626 |
| 1.5 | 1.392521 |
| 1.5375 | 1.359671 |
| 1.575 | 1.32803 |
| 1.6125 | 1.297554 |
| 1.65 | 1.2682 |
| 1.6875 | 1.239926 |
| 1.725 | 1.212692 |
| 1.7625 | 1.186461 |
| 1.8 | 1.161196 |
| 1.8375 | 1.13686 |
| 1.875 | 1.11342 |
| 1.9125 | 1.090843 |
| 1.95 | 1.069096 |
| 1.9875 | 1.04815 |
| 2.025 | 1.027975 |
| 2.0625 | 1.008543 |
| 2.1 | 0.9898257 |
| 2.1375 | 0.9717974 |
| 2.175 | 0.9544326 |
| 2.2125 | 0.937707 |
| 2.25 | 0.9215969 |
| 2.2875 | 0.9060798 |
| 2.325 | 0.8911338 |
| 2.3625 | 0.8767379 |
| 2.4 | 0.8628718 |
| 2.4375 | 0.8495161 |
| 2.475 | 0.836652 |
| 2.5125 | 0.8242613 |
| 2.55 | 0.8123267 |
| 2.5875 | 0.8008313 |
| 2.625 | 0.789759 |
| 2.6625 | 0.7790943 |
| 2.7 | 0.7688221 |
| 2.7375 | 0.7589279 |
| 2.775 | 0.7493979 |
| 2.8125 | 0.7402187 |
| 2.85 | 0.7313773 |
| 2.8875 | 0.7228613 |
| 2.925 | 0.7146588 |
| 2.9625 | 0.7067581 |
| 3 | 0.6991483 |
At most 82 representative computed coordinates including endpoints; the plotted curve can use a finer grid. A table of a revealed generator is not independent measurement evidence.
fresh observed record
| time (s) | reading (V) |
|---|---|
| 3 | 0.6991483 |
At most 82 representative computed coordinates including endpoints; the plotted curve can use a finer grid. A table of a revealed generator is not independent measurement evidence.
| Quantity | Value | Unit |
|---|---|---|
| Calibration reading at 0 s | 4.5 | V |
| Calibration reading at 1 s | 1.971518 | V |
| Calibration reading at 2 s | 1.041341 | V |
| Inferred decay ratio | 0.3678794 | ratio |
| Inferred time constant | 1 | s |
| Inferred amplitude | 4 | V |
| Inferred constant offset | 0.5 | V |
| Fresh three-second prediction | 0.6991483 | V |
| Fresh three-second observation | 0.6991483 | V |
| Fresh residual | 0 | V |
| Bounded time-constant lower endpoint | 0.9712372 | s |
| Bounded time-constant upper endpoint | 1.030094 | s |
Successive differences remove a constant offset, but fitting three unknowns consumes three records.
For equally spaced times with separation 1 s, r=(y1−y2)/(y0−y1)=e^(−1/tau). Then tau=−1/ln r, A=(y0−y1)/(1−r), B=y0−A. The fourth record is validation, not another calibration equation. On this bounded grid every error-box corner has positive denominator and 0<r<1. A linear-fractional ratio takes its extrema on those corners; tau increases with r, giving deterministic endpoints, not a confidence interval.
Predict before inspecting the values. Save contrasting records with assumptions and one alternative explanation. This virtual display does not certify practical measurement technique.
Successive differences remove a constant offset, but fitting three unknowns consumes three records.
For equally spaced times with separation 1 s, r=(y1−y2)/(y0−y1)=e^(−1/tau). Then tau=−1/ln r, A=(y0−y1)/(1−r), B=y0−A. The fourth record is validation, not another calibration equation. On this bounded grid every error-box corner has positive denominator and 0<r<1. A linear-fractional ratio takes its extrema on those corners; tau increases with r, giving deterministic endpoints, not a confidence interval.
Captures preserve recipes and replay their calculated results. They are synthetic model evidence, not physical measurements.
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