Fit two hypotheses before revealing a third location
Two calibrated models can fit the same two records perfectly and still make different predictions elsewhere. At exact perpendicular distances y=1,2,3 m, compare a known-half-length 1 m straight-segment shape f(y)=1/[y√(L²+y²)] with L=1 m with an infinite-line shape g(y)=1/y. Each has its own unknown amplitude and constant indicated baseline. The finite-shape amplitude has units µT m², while the infinite-line amplitude has units µT m; these coefficients are not interchangeable.
Learning outcome: Fit both amplitudes and baselines from only distances 1 and 2. Freeze both third-distance predictions and propagate ±0.005 µT calibration bounds. Then compare the unused third observation, retaining any additional observation uncertainty. State an independent measurement needed to separate background from instrument offset.
Starting recap
Review cross products, source integration measures, line integrals, differential initial states and signed work. Distinguish symmetry premises from integral laws.
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Try
Take generating current 3 A and baseline 0.1 µT. The first two indicated fields are 0.1+0.6/√2 and 0.1+0.6/(2√5) µT. Both candidates fit these exactly. The finite-segment third prediction is 0.1+0.6/(3√10)≈0.163246 µT; the infinite-line fit gives a different third value because its shape decays differently after the baseline is fitted.
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Why can the third reading compare these two calibrated hypotheses?
Experiment
Fit both amplitudes and baselines from only distances 1 and 2. Freeze both third-distance predictions and propagate ±0.005 µT calibration bounds. Then compare the unused third observation, retaining any additional observation uncertainty. State an independent measurement needed to separate background from instrument offset.
Fit two spatial hypotheses and reserve a third location
Worked teaching model · synthetic values · Perpendicular readings at exact distances 1,2,3 m. Generator is the known-half-length 1 m segment contribution plus constant baseline; real return/background fields are not uniquely identified. Both candidate models fit amplitude and baseline using only distances 1,2. Distance 3 is withheld. Field gain is stipulated calibrated; baseline may represent sensor offset or an approximately uniform background.
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Two calibrated hypotheses and one unused location
Unlike graph quantities rescale independently; read units and values, not screen angles. 1: finite known-length fit (solid).2: infinite-line fit (dashed).3: fresh third-distance observation (open-circle marked location). Joined curves show the supplied model, not additional observations.
Equivalent numerical coordinates for Two calibrated hypotheses and one unused location
finite known-length fit
| perpendicular distance (m) | indicated field (microtesla) |
|---|---|
| 1 | 0.5242641 |
| 1.025 | 0.5087749 |
| 1.05 | 0.4940887 |
| 1.075 | 0.480151 |
| 1.1 | 0.4669124 |
| 1.125 | 0.4543274 |
| 1.15 | 0.4423541 |
| 1.175 | 0.4309542 |
| 1.2 | 0.4200922 |
| 1.225 | 0.4097354 |
| 1.25 | 0.3998536 |
| 1.275 | 0.3904188 |
| 1.3 | 0.381405 |
| 1.325 | 0.372788 |
| 1.35 | 0.3645456 |
| 1.375 | 0.3566567 |
| 1.4 | 0.3491021 |
| 1.425 | 0.3418635 |
| 1.45 | 0.334924 |
| 1.475 | 0.3282678 |
| 1.5 | 0.3218801 |
| 1.525 | 0.315747 |
| 1.55 | 0.3098556 |
| 1.575 | 0.3041936 |
| 1.6 | 0.2987496 |
| 1.625 | 0.2935129 |
| 1.65 | 0.2884734 |
| 1.675 | 0.2836215 |
| 1.7 | 0.2789483 |
| 1.725 | 0.2744454 |
| 1.75 | 0.2701048 |
| 1.775 | 0.265919 |
| 1.8 | 0.261881 |
| 1.825 | 0.257984 |
| 1.85 | 0.2542217 |
| 1.875 | 0.2505882 |
| 1.9 | 0.2470778 |
| 1.925 | 0.2436851 |
| 1.95 | 0.2404051 |
| 1.975 | 0.237233 |
| 2 | 0.2341641 |
| 2.025 | 0.2311942 |
| 2.05 | 0.2283191 |
| 2.075 | 0.225535 |
| 2.1 | 0.2228382 |
| 2.125 | 0.220225 |
| 2.15 | 0.2176923 |
| 2.175 | 0.2152367 |
| 2.2 | 0.2128553 |
| 2.225 | 0.2105452 |
| 2.25 | 0.2083036 |
| 2.275 | 0.2061279 |
| 2.3 | 0.2040155 |
| 2.325 | 0.2019642 |
| 2.35 | 0.1999715 |
| 2.375 | 0.1980355 |
| 2.4 | 0.1961538 |
| 2.425 | 0.1943247 |
| 2.45 | 0.1925462 |
| 2.475 | 0.1908165 |
| 2.5 | 0.1891338 |
| 2.525 | 0.1874965 |
| 2.55 | 0.1859029 |
| 2.575 | 0.1843517 |
| 2.6 | 0.1828413 |
| 2.625 | 0.1813704 |
| 2.65 | 0.1799375 |
| 2.675 | 0.1785414 |
| 2.7 | 0.177181 |
| 2.725 | 0.1758549 |
| 2.75 | 0.1745621 |
| 2.775 | 0.1733015 |
| 2.8 | 0.1720721 |
| 2.825 | 0.1708728 |
| 2.85 | 0.1697027 |
| 2.875 | 0.1685608 |
| 2.9 | 0.1674463 |
| 2.925 | 0.1663584 |
| 2.95 | 0.1652961 |
| 2.975 | 0.1642588 |
| 3 | 0.1632456 |
At most 82 representative computed coordinates including endpoints; the plotted curve can use a finer grid. A table of a revealed generator is not independent measurement evidence.
infinite-line fit
| perpendicular distance (m) | indicated field (microtesla) |
|---|---|
| 1 | 0.5242641 |
| 1.025 | 0.5101128 |
| 1.05 | 0.4966355 |
| 1.075 | 0.483785 |
| 1.1 | 0.4715186 |
| 1.125 | 0.4597974 |
| 1.15 | 0.4485858 |
| 1.175 | 0.4378513 |
| 1.2 | 0.4275641 |
| 1.225 | 0.4176967 |
| 1.25 | 0.4082241 |
| 1.275 | 0.3991229 |
| 1.3 | 0.3903718 |
| 1.325 | 0.3819509 |
| 1.35 | 0.3738419 |
| 1.375 | 0.3660277 |
| 1.4 | 0.3584926 |
| 1.425 | 0.351222 |
| 1.45 | 0.344202 |
| 1.475 | 0.33742 |
| 1.5 | 0.3308641 |
| 1.525 | 0.3245231 |
| 1.55 | 0.3183867 |
| 1.575 | 0.312445 |
| 1.6 | 0.3066891 |
| 1.625 | 0.3011102 |
| 1.65 | 0.2957004 |
| 1.675 | 0.2904521 |
| 1.7 | 0.2853582 |
| 1.725 | 0.2804119 |
| 1.75 | 0.2756069 |
| 1.775 | 0.2709373 |
| 1.8 | 0.2663974 |
| 1.825 | 0.2619819 |
| 1.85 | 0.2576857 |
| 1.875 | 0.2535041 |
| 1.9 | 0.2494325 |
| 1.925 | 0.2454667 |
| 1.95 | 0.2416025 |
| 1.975 | 0.2378362 |
| 2 | 0.2341641 |
| 2.025 | 0.2305826 |
| 2.05 | 0.2270885 |
| 2.075 | 0.2236785 |
| 2.1 | 0.2203498 |
| 2.125 | 0.2170994 |
| 2.15 | 0.2139245 |
| 2.175 | 0.2108227 |
| 2.2 | 0.2077914 |
| 2.225 | 0.2048281 |
| 2.25 | 0.2019307 |
| 2.275 | 0.199097 |
| 2.3 | 0.1963249 |
| 2.325 | 0.1936125 |
| 2.35 | 0.1909577 |
| 2.375 | 0.1883588 |
| 2.4 | 0.1858141 |
| 2.425 | 0.1833218 |
| 2.45 | 0.1808804 |
| 2.475 | 0.1784883 |
| 2.5 | 0.1761441 |
| 2.525 | 0.1738463 |
| 2.55 | 0.1715935 |
| 2.575 | 0.1693845 |
| 2.6 | 0.1672179 |
| 2.625 | 0.1650927 |
| 2.65 | 0.1630075 |
| 2.675 | 0.1609613 |
| 2.7 | 0.158953 |
| 2.725 | 0.1569815 |
| 2.75 | 0.1550459 |
| 2.775 | 0.1531452 |
| 2.8 | 0.1512784 |
| 2.825 | 0.1494446 |
| 2.85 | 0.147643 |
| 2.875 | 0.1458728 |
| 2.9 | 0.144133 |
| 2.925 | 0.1424231 |
| 2.95 | 0.140742 |
| 2.975 | 0.1390893 |
| 3 | 0.1374641 |
At most 82 representative computed coordinates including endpoints; the plotted curve can use a finer grid. A table of a revealed generator is not independent measurement evidence.
fresh third-distance observation
| perpendicular distance (m) | indicated field (microtesla) |
|---|---|
| 3 | 0.1632456 |
At most 82 representative computed coordinates including endpoints; the plotted curve can use a finer grid. A table of a revealed generator is not independent measurement evidence.
| Quantity | Value | Unit |
|---|---|---|
| First calibration field | 0.5242641 | microtesla |
| Second calibration field | 0.2341641 | microtesla |
| Fitted finite-segment current | 3 | A |
| Fitted finite-segment baseline | 0.1 | microtesla |
| Fitted infinite-line amplitude | 0.5802 | microtesla m |
| Fitted infinite-line baseline | -0.05593591 | microtesla |
| Fresh third observation | 0.1632456 | microtesla |
| Finite-segment third prediction | 0.1632456 | microtesla |
| Infinite-line third prediction | 0.1374641 | microtesla |
| Infinite-line fresh residual | 0.02578147 | microtesla |
| Finite prediction calibration-error bound | 0.007444624 | microtesla |
| Infinite prediction calibration-error bound | 0.008333333 | microtesla |
Both two-parameter hypotheses fit the first two records exactly; only the unused spatial record compares their predictions.
Each candidate has shape f(y), amplitude A and constant baseline B0. Solve A=(Y1−Y2)/(f1−f2), B0=Y1−A f1, then freeze Y3pred=wY1+(1−w)Y2 where w=(f3−f2)/(f1−f2). Independent ±0.005 microtesla calibration bounds propagate as epsilon(|w|+|1−w|); a fresh observation error would be additional. Segment half-length is stipulated independently, not inferred from these same two readings. A constant fitted baseline does not distinguish sensor offset from uniform background or prove omitted return fields are constant.
Predict before inspecting the values. Save contrasting records with assumptions and one alternative explanation. This virtual display does not certify practical measurement technique.
Both two-parameter hypotheses fit the first two records exactly; only the unused spatial record compares their predictions.
Each candidate has shape f(y), amplitude A and constant baseline B0. Solve A=(Y1−Y2)/(f1−f2), B0=Y1−A f1, then freeze Y3pred=wY1+(1−w)Y2 where w=(f3−f2)/(f1−f2). Independent ±0.005 microtesla calibration bounds propagate as epsilon(|w|+|1−w|); a fresh observation error would be additional. Segment half-length is stipulated independently, not inferred from these same two readings. A constant fitted baseline does not distinguish sensor offset from uniform background or prove omitted return fields are constant.
Captures preserve recipes and replay their calculated results. They are synthetic model evidence, not physical measurements.
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