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SCIENCE · INVESTIGATE AND EXPLAIN

Limit weather claims to the recorded evidence

Handle absent precipitation and ambiguous pressure metadata without turning a small station comparison into a climate claim.

Learning outcome: Reject unsupported zero-rainfall, pressure-gradient and climate conclusions and specify additional evidence needed.

Starting recap

Null means unavailable in the supplied field. Three deliberately chosen station records at different times do not define a climatology or a controlled experiment.

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Try

All three precipitationLast3Hours fields are null. That cannot be rewritten as three measured totals of 0 mm.

Open the experiment

Predict

Can the reported pressure fields be used as a comparable sea-level pressure gradient without verifying their definitions?

Experiment

Inspect precipitation, sea-level pressure and barometricPressure availability for all records. Make a supported-versus-unsupported claim ledger for one selected pair.

Audit and compare recorded weather observations

Recorded weather observations · frozen source responses · Frozen weather-observations-v1: three deliberately selected NOAA station records dated 25 October 2026, with different observation times and locations. Source values and quality-control codes are retained; missing values stay missing. Calculated humidity is a liquid-water approximation from the reported temperature and dew point, not another observation. No live weather request, pressure-gradient calculation, climate trend or forecast is supplied.

Reset keeps your prediction, captures and practice history.

Recorded temperature and dew point · shared fixed scaleCircle: temperature · square: dew point · connecting segment: their difference0510152025A · KJFK · 19:05 UTCB · KSEA · 19:10 UTCTemperature (°C) · a gap is not a relative-humidity percentage
Frozen NOAA source fields and retained missing values
FieldA · KJFKB · KSEA
Station nameNew York, Kennedy International AirportSeattle, Seattle-Tacoma International Airport
Observation time (UTC)2026-10-25T19:05:00+00:002026-10-25T19:10:00+00:00
Retrieved (UTC)2026-10-25T19:58:30.501772+00:002026-10-25T19:58:31.120219+00:00
Reported station elevation7 m137 m
Temperature18 °C · source QC: V11 °C · source QC: V
Dew point2 °C · source QC: V8 °C · source QC: V
Reported relative humidity34.25 % · source QC: V81.75 % · source QC: V
Wind speed14.832 km/h · source QC: V9.252 km/h · source QC: V
Wind direction200 degrees · source QC: V90 degrees · source QC: V
Wind gustNot reported (null) · source QC: ZNot reported (null) · source QC: Z
API barometricPressure103284.85 Pa · source QC: V101490.06 Pa · source QC: V
API seaLevelPressureNot reported (null) · source QC: ZNot reported (null) · source QC: Z
Precipitation, preceding three hoursNot reported (null) · source QC: ZNot reported (null) · source QC: Z
Source weather descriptionClearCloudy
Raw message fieldEmpty in this response; no raw METAR suppliedEmpty in this response; no raw METAR supplied
Specific observation sourceKJFK observation recordKSEA observation record

Source QC codes are copied verbatim, not converted into a new quality grade. Decimal places are not an uncertainty interval. Missing gust or precipitation is not evidence of calm wind or zero rain. The API's barometricPressure field is preserved by name: this lesson does not assume it is true station pressure or interchangeable with sea-level pressure or an altimeter setting. No pressure gradient is inferred.

Calculations from reported values, not additional measurements
QuantityA · KJFKB · KSEA
Temperature minus dew point16.00 °C3.00 °C
Calculated RH = 100 eₛ(Td)/eₛ(T)34.22%81.74%
Reported RH34.25%81.75%
Wind speed converted by dividing km/h by 3.64.120 m/s2.570 m/s
Signed observation-time difference A − B-5 minutes; negative means A was observed earlier

The calculated humidity reuses the liquid-water saturation approximation from the humidity investigation. A mismatch can reflect rounding or a different source calculation; agreement is not independent sensor validation. These three records cannot establish a station's usual climate, a causal effect of elevation, a temporal warming trend or the future weather.

Inspect weather dataset provenance

NOAA National Weather Service API; snapshot weather-observations-v1. Three deliberately selected airport station records; not simultaneous, random or a climate sample. Frozen records; no live fetch in the lesson. Exact responses, field units and retrieval times are bundled locally. No source icons or external images are loaded. A later source correction does not silently change saved selections.

NOAA API documentation and open-data terms; NWS humidity calculation reference. The API is a recent-observation service; a historical record link can expire while this frozen teaching snapshot remains available.

A − B temperature difference: 7.00 °C. Observation time difference A − B: -5 minutes.

The station and time both change in a cross-station comparison. A reported null is not zero, dry weather or calm wind. Reported humidity and the calculation from temperature/dew point may share inputs; their agreement is not independent validation.

Captures preserve record selections in weather-observations-v1 and replay comparisons of those frozen NOAA reports. Calculations are derived from reported values, not new measurements or live weather updates.

Understand

A missing field is an evidence boundary

All three saved precipitationLast3Hours values are null. The correct reading is that this field supplies no usable amount for that interval in these records. Replacing null with 0 mm would change missing information into a numerical observation that the source did not provide.

A text description such as Clear or Cloudy does not repair that gap. It does not establish an accumulated three-hour precipitation total. Nor does an RH below 100% prove that no precipitation occurred elsewhere in the atmosphere or earlier in the interval.

Make three paper columns: recorded value, missing value and inference. Place the precipitation nulls in the second, not the first. Write a proposed rainfall claim in the third and name the observations required to assess it.

Keep pressure products in their own categories

The API field named barometricPressure contains 103284.85 Pa for KJFK and 101490.06 Pa for KSEA; it is null for KDEN. All seaLevelPressure entries are null. The available field name alone does not establish that its numbers are true station pressures, sea-level-reduced pressures or altimeter settings.

You can convert an available number from Pa to hPa by dividing by 100, but a unit conversion does not determine its meteorological definition. Preserve the API field name and uncertainty about comparability. Do not substitute it for a missing seaLevelPressure value or derive a horizontal pressure gradient from these records.

A pressure-gradient comparison would require appropriate, consistently defined pressure quantities, spatial context and suitable timing, along with method metadata. The lesson does not perform that analysis. The NWS API documentation provides the service and field framework; interpreting an observational product still requires its definition and provenance. NWS API documentation.

Preserve quality-control information without inventing a grade

Raw qualityControl codes are retained beside the source quantities. They should not be relabeled as a percentage certainty or an independently verified pass. The lesson has not audited the station instruments or reproduced the upstream quality-control process.

The same caution applies to an empty rawMessage. The saved records contain no formal raw METAR string to decode. A plausible-looking reconstruction would be new authored content, not preserved evidence. An honest audit keeps the absence visible.

These records are not a climate sample

KJFK, KDEN and KSEA were deliberately selected and observed at different UTC times. Their temperatures, humidity and wind values describe those specific records. They cannot establish a city’s typical climate, a seasonal average or a long-term trend.

Even a simultaneous set of three stations would not by itself establish those broader claims. A climatological question needs an appropriate longer record, sampling coverage and consistent methods. A causal question needs attention to competing explanations, not merely a difference between selected values.

Compare KJFK and KSEA, then reverse the pair. The signed differences reverse, but the amount of observational evidence is unchanged. Repeating the same selection many times does not create additional independent samples or strengthen a climate inference.

Build a reviewable claim ledger

Write one supported statement, such as the stored KJFK temperature exceeding the stored KSEA temperature by 7°C at their respective times. Add the identifiers and timestamps. Then write three stronger statements: a typical climate ranking, a precipitation-total comparison and a sea-level pressure-gradient claim.

For each stronger statement, identify the missing data or definition. Replace an unsupported conclusion with a targeted evidence request: a consistent long-term record, an actual interval precipitation observation, or verified pressure-product metadata and comparable readings. The purpose is to make progress on the scientific question rather than declaring all comparisons useless.

The snapshot remains useful for practicing unit conversions, source tracing, missingness and conditional humidity calculations. Its limits matter because they determine which conclusions those practices support.

Transfer: review an invented zero

A dashboard fills missing three-hour precipitation with zero and averages the three filled values. It reports that no rain fell at any station. What went wrong, and what can be concluded from the original fields?

Check the weather-evidence transfer

The dashboard replaced missing values with invented measurements. An average of those replacements does not establish rainfall. The original fields provide no usable three-hour amounts for the selected records; appropriate precipitation observations are needed before calculating or comparing totals.

Apply

precipitationLast3Hours is null in a selected record. The defensible conclusion is:

Public practice checks a specific claim. It does not establish independent mastery.

Explain missingness, pressure-product ambiguity and non-simultaneous sampling, then propose the data needed for one stronger scientific claim.

Continue

Completion requires a saved prediction, at least one capture and a reflection. Presence checks do not grade your reasoning.

Skipping retains experiments and awards no mastery.

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