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SCIENCE · INVESTIGATE AND EXPLAIN

Distinguish unrest, eruption and a revised report

Reconcile preliminary and retrospective notices without mixing event, report and measurement dates.

Learning outcome: Build a sourced timeline and keep gas emission rate distinct from concentration.

Starting recap

June 3 is preliminary; June 9 retrospectively describes roughly 00:30-09:00 effusion on June 3.

All lessons are open directly. Your saved experiments remain when you leave and return.

Try

The retrospective effusion duration is approximately 8.5 hours.

Open the experiment

Predict

Does later flow movement prove continued supply at the vent?

Experiment

Reveal surface observations, compare both June notices and place the June 6 combined-area gas rate on its own date.

Interpret dated volcano monitoring evidence

Historical USGS monitoring summaries · separate worked geometry · Three historical 2024 USGS HVO reports, not current conditions. Published summaries retain inequalities, approximation, intervals, differing header/identifier times and unavailable uncertainty. Tilt, displacement, seismic counts and surface observations answer different questions. Revealing facts is guided practice, not a forecast, source inversion or independent hazard expertise.

Reset keeps your prediction, captures and practice history.

From solid mantle to magma movement

Original cross-sections below are qualitative and not to scale. Trace the arrows and explain which change permits partial melting. The mantle is predominantly solid; magma is not a global ocean beneath floating plates.

Divergent settingSubduction settingIntraplate hot spotRise → lower pressurePartial melting can beginwithout added heating.Water/volatiles releasedfrom descending materialhelp mantle melt above it.Not wholesale slab melting.Hot mantle upwellingcan produce magma awayfrom a plate boundary.

Kīlauea illustrates a hot-spot setting. Its historical monitoring records do not demonstrate subduction. Identical convergent arrows could describe an oceanic subduction setting or continental collision: velocity signs alone cannot identify the material or melting mechanism. Transform motion alone is not a universal cause of melting.

Partial melting, ascent, storage, crystallization, intrusion and eruption are different processes. A dike is a sheet-like intrusion; it can stop below the surface. Gas release and escape, viscosity, temperature, composition and confinement influence eruption behavior. No single composition label guarantees an eruption style.

Paper action: draw a path that ends in an intrusion and another that reaches the surface. Add the evidence that would distinguish them. Background: National Park Service explanation of magma and eruption types.

Historical monitoring evidence — 2024

June 3 preliminary monitoring update · June 2–3, 2024; preliminary June 3 update. These are selected published summaries, not a raw instrument time series or current conditions. Switching views reveals more of a fixed record. Source links remain available, so this is guided evidence practice, not a hidden assessment.

Read the original USGS HVO notice. Scientific report header: 2024-06-03 09:38 HST (2024-06-03T19:38:00Z). The notice identifier contains 2024-06-03T19:34:15+00:00; that identifier time differs from the displayed scientific header. Do not substitute one for the other.

What the instruments constrain
MethodMeaning and limits
TiltmeterChange in local ground slope, in microradians; not height.
GNSSPosition/displacement in a stated frame; an unspecified vector magnitude is not vertical uplift.
Satellite deformation analysisSpatial motion inferred with acquisition geometry and assumptions; selected uplift is an agency interpretation, not raw line-of-sight data.
Seismic networkGround shaking used to detect events; published counts depend on selection and detectability.
Revealed quantities retain their original units, qualifiers and observation windows
Instrument and placeReported quantityDirectionObservation intervalEvidence kind
Tiltmeter
Uēkahuna
approximately 14 microradiandeflationPast day relative to June 3 report; endpoints not statedPublished measurement summary
Numerical uncertainty: unavailable
Tiltmeter
Sand Hill
approximately 50 microradianinflationJune 2 08:00–20:00 HST
Start: 2024-06-02T18:00:00Z
End: 2024-06-03T06:00:00Z
Published measurement summary
Numerical uncertainty: unavailable
Tiltmeter
Sand Hill
approximately 35 microradiandeflationJune 2 20:00 HST to this morning; exact end unspecified
Start: 2024-06-03T06:00:00Z
Published measurement summary
Numerical uncertainty: unavailable

Earthquake summaries are not shown in this view. This is not a report of zero earthquakes.

Surface observations: Surface observations are not shown in this teaching view; this does not mean no eruption.

Dated gas context: Not shown in this teaching view.

Inspect unit conversions and mean-rate arithmetic

Conversions preserve the measured quantity; they do not change tilt into uplift or event count into energy. A mean over a stated interval is not an instantaneous rate. Strict bounds retain their exact arithmetic expression; the rounded boundary is only an aid to reading.

Conversions of currently revealed source quantities
Source rowConverted value
June 3: Uēkahuna tiltapproximately 0.0008021 degrees
June 2: Sand Hill inflationapproximately 0.002865 degrees
June 3: Sand Hill deflationapproximately 0.002005 degrees
Mean rates only when the notice supplies a duration
Source rowHoursMean-rate statement
June 3: Uēkahuna tilt24approximately 0.5833 microradians/hour
June 2: Sand Hill inflation12approximately 4.167 microradians/hour
June 3: Sand Hill deflationUnspecifiedInterval not specified; mean rate unavailable.

For example, 50 microradians over 12 hours gives an approximate mean of 50/12 = 4.17 microradians/hour. A later 35-microradian change with no exact endpoint cannot supply an hourly rate. Do not subtract approximate counts from strict lower bounds to invent exact counts in another interval.

Questions the evidence can and cannot answer

  • What ground changes does each stated instrument summary report?

Still unresolved:

  • What unique subsurface geometry or magma volume would explain these limited summaries?
  • What additional observations would discriminate alternative explanations?
  • What surface observations and dated gas context are not yet shown?
Try a common-frame displacement comparison

Original worked geometry, separate from the USGS observations. Two stations start 1,000 m apart along an east–west baseline. Both use the same reference frame. Predict the distance change before opening the arithmetic. Positive displacement points east.

Displacement arrows: shared scale, 3 drawn units per mm; not station positionsShared translationA: 20 mmB: 20 mmExtensionA: -10 mmB: 10 mmContractionA: 10 mmB: -10 mmDots are vector origins. Compare B − A before inferring a baseline change.
Reveal baseline arithmetic
Exact horizontal teaching cases, not measured deformation
CaseA east mmB east mmB − A mmLength change mm
Shared translation202000.000
Extension-10102020.000
Contraction10-10-20-20.000

Common translation moves both stations while preserving their separation. Two stations constrain one baseline, not the full deformation field or magma volume. Motion perpendicular to the baseline changes its orientation and produces only a second-order length change for a small displacement; a rotation can preserve length without being a translation.

Transfer: A moves 5 mm east and B moves 25 mm east. Calculate relative displacement and explain why shifting the shared reference origin does not change it.

Connect tilt to an explicitly assumed geometry

Original paper example: a rigid straight beam spans a horizontal 10 m and tilts through 50 microradians. One microradian is one millionth of a radian. The angle is 0.00286479 degrees; height difference = 10 × tan(50 × 10⁻⁶) m, approximately 0.500 mm. For this small angle, replacing tan(angle) with angle gives nearly the same result.

This is not observed uplift at Sand Hill. Local ground slope does not specify a rigid 10 m beam, spatial deformation field or magma volume. Change the paper baseline to 20 m and predict the height difference under the same deliberately imposed geometry.

Inspect historical provenance and missing information

Version: volcano-evidence-v1. Selected factual summaries are attributed to USGS HVO; no external image is copied. Retrieved 2026-10-26T17:00:32.219464+00:00. Missing numerical uncertainty means unavailable, not zero error. The records do not reconstruct raw GNSS vectors, satellite viewing geometry or a complete earthquake catalog.

Selected-data SHA-256: 4c40c2cd1641ceaafea4ff7fa9efe9a244c17def57661a37017acd8b6b571b72

Retrieved source HTML SHA-256: d4dec04e7feb65b3032600e715c903a80d0ca26e567a07549fc30a4badb060a6; 21977 bytes.

Source identifier: DOI-USGS-HVO-2024-06-03T19:34:15+00:00. Historical alert levels are not displayed as present-day guidance.

Deformation summaries are available. Surface outcome is not shown; no eruption probability or date is inferred.

volcano-evidence-v1; 2024-06-03 09:38 HST. 3 deformation summaries, 0 earthquake summaries and 0 dated gas summaries shown. Qualifiers and observation intervals remain attached; hidden evidence is not absent evidence.

Captures preserve the historical packet and evidence view. Replaying reveals fixed published summaries and their limits; it does not create new measurements, an independent prediction or an eruption forecast.

Understand

Separate unrest from an observed eruption

Deformation and earthquakes can support an interpretation of subsurface activity. Surface lava establishes a different claim: magma has reached the surface. Select the June 3 packet and first inspect the initial evidence view. Write what would be needed before stating that an eruption is occurring, then reveal the surface-observation view.

These controls provide cumulative classroom views of historical evidence. Source links remain accessible throughout, so later hiding a panel does not restore an independent prediction. “Not shown in this view” also differs from “not reported in the notice.” Keep both distinctions in your notebook.

Build a timeline with three different timestamps

The June 3 HVO update reports eruption onset at approximately 00:30 HST and describes activity as ongoing at its scientific header time, 09:38 HST. The URL identifier includes a different time. Do not silently replace the scientific header with a timestamp parsed from the address.

Draw three rows: event or observation time, report-header time and URL-identifier time. Hawaii Standard Time is UTC minus ten hours for these dates. Adding ten hours converts 00:30 HST on June 3 to 10:30 UTC on June 3. The conversion changes the clock convention, not the physical event.

Some intervals are expressed relative to the report, such as the preceding day, while others have explicit endpoints. Preserve that wording. A header timestamp does not prove that every summarized observation occurred at that instant.

Compare preliminary and retrospective accounts

The June 9 follow-up retrospectively describes effusion from roughly June 3 00:30 to 09:00 HST. That gives approximately 8.5 hours. It distinguishes the end of effusion from later movement of already-emplaced flows.

Place the June 3 preliminary statement beside the June 9 retrospective one. Retain both with their publication context. Do not rewrite the earlier “ongoing” report as though the later cessation estimate was already available, or use the June 3 09:38 header as the final effusion time. Updating an interpretation with later evidence is different from altering its original provenance.

The June 9 record reports no lava erupting while its preceding-day summaries include inflation at both named tilt stations. This is a concrete counterexample to “inflation means erupting now.” It does not make inflation useless; it narrows what inflation alone can establish.

Put gas on its actual date and footprint

The follow-up includes approximately 400 tonnes/day measured on June 6 for the summit plus eruption site. That is not a June 9 vent-only measurement. In the June 3 packet, a contemporaneous eruption-area sulfur-dioxide result was not yet supplied; do not fill that gap with an older value or label it zero.

Convert the June 6 rate using 1000 kg per tonne and 86400 seconds per day: 400 × 1000 / 86400 ≈ 4.63 kg/s. Retain “approximately.” This is an emission-rate conversion, not the concentration breathed at a location and not the total mass released over several days. Calculating a longer-period mass would require evidence that the rate applied over that period.

On paper draw a date marker at June 6 and a bracket around its combined spatial footprint. This prevents a tempting but unsupported claim that all monitoring channels refer to one simultaneous location and interval.

Transfer: distinguish flowing material from continued supply

An unfamiliar follow-up says an already-emplaced lava flow continues moving after supply at the vent stops. Another observer sees a glowing surface and concludes that new lava must still be erupting. Identify the missing evidence and explain why neither glow nor movement alone settles the vent-supply question.

Check the volcano-observations transfer

Previously erupted material can remain hot and move after effusion ends. Establishing continued supply requires suitable observations of the vent or a defensible flow-supply assessment with its time context. Preserve the distinction between emplacement, cooling, movement and ongoing effusion; do not infer a gas concentration from a separate emission rate.

Apply

The approximately 400 tonnes/day gas value refers to:

Public practice checks a specific claim. It does not establish independent mastery.

Separate observed outcome, report revision, asynchronous gas context and unavailable measurements.

Continue

Completion requires a saved prediction, at least one capture and a reflection. Presence checks do not grade your reasoning.

Skipping retains experiments and awards no mastery.

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