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SCIENCE · INVESTIGATE AND EXPLAIN

Read what each deformation instrument measures

Compare tilt, displacement and interpreted uplift while preserving their geometry and qualifiers.

Learning outcome: Calculate static station changes without confusing translation with extension.

Starting recap

The 1000 m station examples and 10 m horizontal-span beam are original geometry, not observed instrument locations.

All lessons are open directly. Your saved experiments remain when you leave and return.

Try

Two stations both moving 20 mm east retain their original separation.

Open the experiment

Predict

Does up to 20 cm GNSS motion establish 20 cm vertical uplift everywhere?

Experiment

Predict beam and common-translation/extension examples, then compare the January tilt, GNSS and satellite summaries.

Interpret dated volcano monitoring evidence

Historical USGS monitoring summaries · separate worked geometry · Three historical 2024 USGS HVO reports, not current conditions. Published summaries retain inequalities, approximation, intervals, differing header/identifier times and unavailable uncertainty. Tilt, displacement, seismic counts and surface observations answer different questions. Revealing facts is guided practice, not a forecast, source inversion or independent hazard expertise.

Reset keeps your prediction, captures and practice history.

From solid mantle to magma movement

Original cross-sections below are qualitative and not to scale. Trace the arrows and explain which change permits partial melting. The mantle is predominantly solid; magma is not a global ocean beneath floating plates.

Divergent settingSubduction settingIntraplate hot spotRise → lower pressurePartial melting can beginwithout added heating.Water/volatiles releasedfrom descending materialhelp mantle melt above it.Not wholesale slab melting.Hot mantle upwellingcan produce magma awayfrom a plate boundary.

Kīlauea illustrates a hot-spot setting. Its historical monitoring records do not demonstrate subduction. Identical convergent arrows could describe an oceanic subduction setting or continental collision: velocity signs alone cannot identify the material or melting mechanism. Transform motion alone is not a universal cause of melting.

Partial melting, ascent, storage, crystallization, intrusion and eruption are different processes. A dike is a sheet-like intrusion; it can stop below the surface. Gas release and escape, viscosity, temperature, composition and confinement influence eruption behavior. No single composition label guarantees an eruption style.

Paper action: draw a path that ends in an intrusion and another that reaches the surface. Add the evidence that would distinguish them. Background: National Park Service explanation of magma and eruption types.

Historical monitoring evidence — 2024

June 3 preliminary monitoring update · June 2–3, 2024; preliminary June 3 update. These are selected published summaries, not a raw instrument time series or current conditions. Switching views reveals more of a fixed record. Source links remain available, so this is guided evidence practice, not a hidden assessment.

Read the original USGS HVO notice. Scientific report header: 2024-06-03 09:38 HST (2024-06-03T19:38:00Z). The notice identifier contains 2024-06-03T19:34:15+00:00; that identifier time differs from the displayed scientific header. Do not substitute one for the other.

What the instruments constrain
MethodMeaning and limits
TiltmeterChange in local ground slope, in microradians; not height.
GNSSPosition/displacement in a stated frame; an unspecified vector magnitude is not vertical uplift.
Satellite deformation analysisSpatial motion inferred with acquisition geometry and assumptions; selected uplift is an agency interpretation, not raw line-of-sight data.
Seismic networkGround shaking used to detect events; published counts depend on selection and detectability.
Revealed quantities retain their original units, qualifiers and observation windows
Instrument and placeReported quantityDirectionObservation intervalEvidence kind
Tiltmeter
Uēkahuna
approximately 14 microradiandeflationPast day relative to June 3 report; endpoints not statedPublished measurement summary
Numerical uncertainty: unavailable
Tiltmeter
Sand Hill
approximately 50 microradianinflationJune 2 08:00–20:00 HST
Start: 2024-06-02T18:00:00Z
End: 2024-06-03T06:00:00Z
Published measurement summary
Numerical uncertainty: unavailable
Tiltmeter
Sand Hill
approximately 35 microradiandeflationJune 2 20:00 HST to this morning; exact end unspecified
Start: 2024-06-03T06:00:00Z
Published measurement summary
Numerical uncertainty: unavailable

Earthquake summaries are not shown in this view. This is not a report of zero earthquakes.

Surface observations: Surface observations are not shown in this teaching view; this does not mean no eruption.

Dated gas context: Not shown in this teaching view.

Inspect unit conversions and mean-rate arithmetic

Conversions preserve the measured quantity; they do not change tilt into uplift or event count into energy. A mean over a stated interval is not an instantaneous rate. Strict bounds retain their exact arithmetic expression; the rounded boundary is only an aid to reading.

Conversions of currently revealed source quantities
Source rowConverted value
June 3: Uēkahuna tiltapproximately 0.0008021 degrees
June 2: Sand Hill inflationapproximately 0.002865 degrees
June 3: Sand Hill deflationapproximately 0.002005 degrees
Mean rates only when the notice supplies a duration
Source rowHoursMean-rate statement
June 3: Uēkahuna tilt24approximately 0.5833 microradians/hour
June 2: Sand Hill inflation12approximately 4.167 microradians/hour
June 3: Sand Hill deflationUnspecifiedInterval not specified; mean rate unavailable.

For example, 50 microradians over 12 hours gives an approximate mean of 50/12 = 4.17 microradians/hour. A later 35-microradian change with no exact endpoint cannot supply an hourly rate. Do not subtract approximate counts from strict lower bounds to invent exact counts in another interval.

Questions the evidence can and cannot answer

  • What ground changes does each stated instrument summary report?

Still unresolved:

  • What unique subsurface geometry or magma volume would explain these limited summaries?
  • What additional observations would discriminate alternative explanations?
  • What surface observations and dated gas context are not yet shown?
Try a common-frame displacement comparison

Original worked geometry, separate from the USGS observations. Two stations start 1,000 m apart along an east–west baseline. Both use the same reference frame. Predict the distance change before opening the arithmetic. Positive displacement points east.

Displacement arrows: shared scale, 3 drawn units per mm; not station positionsShared translationA: 20 mmB: 20 mmExtensionA: -10 mmB: 10 mmContractionA: 10 mmB: -10 mmDots are vector origins. Compare B − A before inferring a baseline change.
Reveal baseline arithmetic
Exact horizontal teaching cases, not measured deformation
CaseA east mmB east mmB − A mmLength change mm
Shared translation202000.000
Extension-10102020.000
Contraction10-10-20-20.000

Common translation moves both stations while preserving their separation. Two stations constrain one baseline, not the full deformation field or magma volume. Motion perpendicular to the baseline changes its orientation and produces only a second-order length change for a small displacement; a rotation can preserve length without being a translation.

Transfer: A moves 5 mm east and B moves 25 mm east. Calculate relative displacement and explain why shifting the shared reference origin does not change it.

Connect tilt to an explicitly assumed geometry

Original paper example: a rigid straight beam spans a horizontal 10 m and tilts through 50 microradians. One microradian is one millionth of a radian. The angle is 0.00286479 degrees; height difference = 10 × tan(50 × 10⁻⁶) m, approximately 0.500 mm. For this small angle, replacing tan(angle) with angle gives nearly the same result.

This is not observed uplift at Sand Hill. Local ground slope does not specify a rigid 10 m beam, spatial deformation field or magma volume. Change the paper baseline to 20 m and predict the height difference under the same deliberately imposed geometry.

Inspect historical provenance and missing information

Version: volcano-evidence-v1. Selected factual summaries are attributed to USGS HVO; no external image is copied. Retrieved 2026-10-26T17:00:32.219464+00:00. Missing numerical uncertainty means unavailable, not zero error. The records do not reconstruct raw GNSS vectors, satellite viewing geometry or a complete earthquake catalog.

Selected-data SHA-256: 4c40c2cd1641ceaafea4ff7fa9efe9a244c17def57661a37017acd8b6b571b72

Retrieved source HTML SHA-256: d4dec04e7feb65b3032600e715c903a80d0ca26e567a07549fc30a4badb060a6; 21977 bytes.

Source identifier: DOI-USGS-HVO-2024-06-03T19:34:15+00:00. Historical alert levels are not displayed as present-day guidance.

Deformation summaries are available. Surface outcome is not shown; no eruption probability or date is inferred.

volcano-evidence-v1; 2024-06-03 09:38 HST. 3 deformation summaries, 0 earthquake summaries and 0 dated gas summaries shown. Qualifiers and observation intervals remain attached; hidden evidence is not absent evidence.

Captures preserve the historical packet and evidence view. Replaying reveals fixed published summaries and their limits; it does not create new measurements, an independent prediction or an eruption forecast.

Understand

Ask what the instrument measures

A record says “50.” Before comparing it with another record, ask for units, direction, location, reference and interval. Fifty microradians of tilt is not fifty centimeters of uplift. A tiltmeter measures a slope change; GNSS tracks positions and displacement; satellite measurements require their own geometry and interpretation.

The USGS deformation-methods explanation describes how these complementary methods constrain changing ground shape. Deformation can reflect moving magma and fluids or fault motion. No instrument label alone uniquely identifies the subsurface cause.

Convert an angle without calling it uplift

One microradian is one millionth of a radian. A 50 microradian change is approximately 0.002865 degrees. Although that angle is small, an instrument may detect it. The conversion changes angle units; it does not create a height measurement.

Use the separate original beam illustration. If the beam has a 10 m horizontal span, an angle of 50 microradians corresponds to endpoint height difference 10 tan(50 × 10⁻⁶) m, approximately 0.0005 m or 0.5 mm. For this tiny angle, tangent is approximately the angle expressed in radians.

Draw the beam and label both its horizontal span and angle. This is hypothetical geometry, not uplift inferred at Sand Hill. The historical record supplies neither this beam nor a uniform local slope over that length. Real deformation varies spatially, so the same conversion cannot be applied indiscriminately to a volcano.

Compare translation with changing separation

Two fictional stations begin 1000 m apart along an east-west baseline. First move both 20 mm east. Their coordinates change, but their separation stays 1000 m. A common translation is not extension of that baseline.

Next move station A 10 mm west and B 10 mm east. Their relative displacement is 20 mm east and their separation becomes 1000.02 m. Reverse those motions and separation becomes 999.98 m, a signed change of −20 mm. Finally move A 10 mm east and B 30 mm east: the same 20 mm extension now accompanies a common translation.

Predict each result before inspecting the static worked ledger. There are no extra geometry sliders and these are not observed station positions. A magnified arrow makes displacement visible but is not drawn at the same scale as the true 1000 m baseline.

Relative displacement magnitude is not always length change. If B moves 20 mm north while A stays fixed, the initially east-west baseline grows by only about 0.0002 mm. Its first-order axial change is zero. The perpendicular movement changes direction much more than baseline length.

Preserve the historical measurement qualifiers

In the January–February packet, reported tilt change exceeded 60 microradians near Uēkahuna and Sand Hill. GNSS motion southwest of the caldera was up to 20 cm, while the agency’s satellite interpretation included uplift up to about 50 cm for a stated January 31–February 1 interval. These are different quantities and coverage, as described in the February 9 notice.

Convert up to 20 cm to up to 0.20 m without dropping the qualifier. The GNSS statement does not say every station moved that amount or that all motion was vertical. The tilt summary lacks an exact common interval/component for its total; do not assign it to one day. Interpreted satellite uplift is not a raw line-of-sight pixel value.

Transfer: repair an unlabelled comparison

A report compares “50” from one instrument with “20” from another and concludes that the first location rose more. What information must be restored, and why might even correctly restored numbers answer different questions?

Check the volcano-deformation transfer

Restore units, component/direction, station or area, reference and observation interval. Tilt, vector displacement and interpreted uplift measure different aspects of deformation. They cannot be ranked as vertical height merely by comparing their numerical sizes; a source model and suitable geometry would be needed for stronger inference.

Apply

If two stations both move 20 mm east, their baseline length:

Public practice checks a specific claim. It does not establish independent mastery.

Preserve units, components, intervals, reference frames and reported bounds.

Continue

Completion requires a saved prediction, at least one capture and a reflection. Presence checks do not grade your reasoning.

Skipping retains experiments and awards no mastery.

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