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SCIENCE · INVESTIGATE AND EXPLAIN

Compare competing uses of a fixed area

Keep food, irrigation, nutrient export and habitat indicators visible.

Learning outcome: Reject an achieved-food claim when conditional requirements exceed the water budget.

Starting recap

All three maps cover 16 ha; the coefficients are supplied scenarios, not measured crop responses.

All lessons are open directly. Your saved experiments remain when you leave and return.

Try

Expanding crop area from 8 to 12 ha raises potential food 16 to 24 t but irrigation requirement 800 to 1200 m³.

Open the experiment

Predict

Can a plan meet food demand on paper yet fail the stated water constraint?

Experiment

At demand 20 t capture all three plans. Compare matched geometry first, then changed crop area.

Compare fixed-area land plans

Original land maps · conditional resource requirements · Original 16-ha grid; 1-ha cells with 100-m sides. Shared-side habitat components are geometry, not species movement. All per-crop-ha indicators are supplied conditional seasonal assumptions: 2 t food, 100 m³ irrigation withdrawal, 25 m³ return, 75 m³ consumption and 3 kg N export. Irrigation budget 1000 m³. No achieved yield, biodiversity response or proportional deficit-yield rule. Rainfall and total crop evapotranspiration are outside the irrigation account.

Reset keeps your prediction, captures and practice history.

Same study area, different land plans

Predict which comparison changes configuration without changing habitat amount. This original 4 × 4 map covers 16 ha. Every square is 1 ha with a 100 m side; H is designated habitat and C is cropped land.

Col 1Col 2Col 3Col 4Row 1HHCCRow 2HHCCRow 3HHCCRow 4HHCC100 mOutside land cover is unknown.

Equivalent map rows: HHCC / HHCC / HHCC / HHCC. Shared sides connect habitat cells in this counting rule; diagonal contact does not. This is not a movement model for any species.

Geometry at fixed cell scale
Crop area haHabitat area haH componentsTotal H perimeterH–C interface
88112 sides = 1200 m4 sides = 400 m

Total habitat perimeter includes exterior study-boundary sides. Those sides are not known to border crops. More edge, fewer components or a smaller perimeter does not establish a universal biodiversity ranking.

Supplied scenario assumptions, not measured or achieved outputs
Demand tConditional potential food tPotential-food shortfall tRequired irrigation withdrawal m³Conditional irrigation return m³Conditional irrigation consumption m³Conditional N export kg N
2016 (actual production not calculated)4 (actual shortfall not calculated)80020060024

Passes the stated irrigation constraint: requirement 800 m³ versus budget 1000 m³; excess 0 m³. Unused arithmetic budget is 200 m³, not proven downstream availability. Actual production, actual food shortfall and biodiversity response are not calculated in any plan.

Every cropped hectare has the same supplied seasonal assumptions: 2 t potential food, 100 m³ required irrigation withdrawal, 25 m³ conditional return, 75 m³ conditional consumption and 3 kg N export. They are not observed crop coefficients. The irrigation account assumes no net storage change and no other fate: 100 = 25 + 75. Rainfall and total crop evapotranspiration are outside it. Return timing, location, quality and reuse are unknown. Nitrogen export is a separate stipulated indicator, not a concentration or output of the nitrogen ledger.

Compare plans at the same demand. Record one improved and one worsened indicator, then name a measurement that could change your decision. No weighted best-plan score is supplied.

16 t conditional potential food; 800 m³ required irrigation; passes the stated water constraint.

Actual production and actual food shortfall are not calculated, including when water-feasible. 8 ha designated habitat in 1 shared-side component(s). Habitat perimeter includes the unknown exterior; H–C interface is reported separately. No biodiversity outcome or best-plan score.

Captures preserve recipes and replay their calculated results. They are synthetic model evidence, not physical measurements.

Understand

Keep the study area fixed

A land decision can change habitat, food production and resource requirements at once. Begin with the same 16-hectare study area in every plan. Each of its sixteen square cells is 1 ha, with a 100 m side. H designates habitat; C designates crop land. Neither label reports an observed community or guarantees a crop yield.

Select demand 20 tonnes and compare the two plans with eight crop and eight habitat hectares. One groups habitat into a continuous block, while the other alternates H and C. Record both maps before comparing indicators. This pairing holds area and supplied per-hectare coefficients fixed, making the geometric difference inspectable.

Separate amount from arrangement

With shared-side connectivity, the contiguous plan has one habitat component and the checkerboard has eight. Diagonally touching cells do not connect under this chosen rule. The habitat-to-crop interface is 4 versus 24 cell sides, or 400 versus 2,400 m. Total habitat perimeter also includes the outer study boundary, whose adjacent land cover is unknown. It must not all be labeled crop edge.

These are geometric descriptions, not measurements of movement, survival or species richness. Different organisms cross different distances and land covers. A configuration that benefits one organism need not benefit another. The habitat-configuration lesson compares a real published landscape summary with these original toy maps while preserving their different scales.

Compare resource indicators without hiding constraints

Both eight-crop-hectare plans have conditional potential food output 16 t, required irrigation withdrawal 800 m³, conditional return 200 m³, consumption 600 m³ and supplied nitrogen export 24 kg N. The coefficients are identical original scenario inputs. They do not estimate a species response or couple the land map to the separate nitrogen ledger.

Now select expanded cropping: twelve crop hectares and four habitat hectares. Potential food becomes 24 t and required irrigation becomes 1,200 m³. The budget is only 1,000 m³, so requirement exceeds budget by 200. Although potential food exceeds the chosen 20 t demand, actual production and actual food shortfall are not calculated. There is no deficit-yield function to justify a proportional reduction or a claim of zero yield.

The plan’s displayed return of 300 m³ and consumption of 900 m³ are conditional requirements under the stipulated account. Do not report them as observed flows when the prerequisite withdrawal is not available. Likewise, passing the budget in another plan only satisfies one arithmetic constraint; it does not prove successful production.

Account for what improves and worsens

Expansion raises potential food by 8 t but raises irrigation requirement by 400 m³ and supplied nitrogen export by 12 kg N, while removing 4 ha of habitat. Capture each plan with a note naming the changed assumptions. More cropped area and less habitat are different from rearranging the same area, so this comparison does not isolate fragmentation alone.

Keep indicators in separate columns. Selecting a preferred plan requires objectives and evidence about consequences, not a hidden weighted sustainability score. A nitrogen-export amount alone does not measure recipient concentration or ecological harm; EPA’s nutrient causal-assessment guidance distinguishes sources, pathways and effects. Detailed pollutant mechanisms belong to the later pollution package.

Transfer: reject a false sufficiency claim

A new supplied plan has potential food 30 t, demand 25 t and required irrigation 1,400 m³ against a 1,100 m³ budget. A report says “five tonnes surplus food is guaranteed.” Identify the numerical and inferential problems.

Check the land-plan transfer

The potential margin is 5 t, but water requirements exceed the budget by 300 m³. Actual food production is not determined by these inputs, so a guaranteed surplus is unsupported. Request a defensible water/yield analysis and further production evidence before making an achieved-food claim.

Apply

Expanded cropping has potential food 24 t and requires 1200 m³ against a 1000 m³ budget. At demand 20 t:

Public practice checks a specific claim. It does not establish independent mastery.

Name an increased and a worsened indicator, and distinguish conditional output from observed achievement.

Continue

Completion requires a saved prediction, at least one capture and a reflection. Presence checks do not grade your reasoning.

Skipping retains experiments and awards no mastery.

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