Lesson 21 of 21 in this unit
Test whether the model helps action.
Freeze a model and planner before comparing prediction, control and changed-dynamics outcomes.
By the end: Distinguish one-step error, rollout error, external task success and model work on nominal and changed dynamics.
Prerequisites and path options
Why learn this? Decide whether model-based planning improves a declared task enough to justify its data, fitting and prediction costs.
Start with something concrete.
A model predicts tomorrow’s position accurately but its planner repeatedly misses the goal. Which measurement answers whether to use it?
Try the interactive modelThe one-step position error is small. Does that guarantee good control?
Change one thing. Watch what follows.
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Understand what changed.
A shorter explanation, with the original worked examples available below. Both explain the same experiment and its limits.
A prediction needs a purpose
A model can predict the next position accurately yet fail to help a controller reach its goal. The lab keeps one-step error, long-rollout error and actual control outcomes separate. Compare against fixed-gain feedback rather than assuming model-based planning is automatically useful.
Freeze before comparing
Choose training coverage and planner horizon on development cases. Freeze the recipe, then inspect nominal dynamics and changed mass and drag. The model stays fixed; the external simulator executes every action independently. A predicted success cannot change a failed physical trace into success.
Keep the original evidence
Opening reserved outcomes exposes them. Tuning after that is practice on known cases, not a fresh independent test. The temporary lesson remembers exposure only during this visit; the saved project preserves known exposure and the first reserved recipe across reload and import. All cases are public in client-side source.
Explain the decision
Inspect failures, task thresholds and planning-call counts as well as cost. A larger horizon can spend more without meeting the goal. The project asks for a supported choice, separate transfer answers and optional implementation evidence. Filled report fields do not certify reasoning quality; human review remains pending.
Open the full worked examples, calculations and limitations
This is the same reference used in Technical mode. Expand it whenever you need the exact numbers, assumptions or further explanation.
Give the model a job
A useful world model should improve a declared task compared with a relevant alternative. Predicting the next position, preserving a long trajectory and reaching a target are related but distinct. The lab reports them separately instead of combining them into a reassuring single score.
The model fits only the original 96 training transitions. Freeze the collection coverage and planner horizon before comparing outcomes. A later control edit does not relabel an existing result. The fitted affine model and planner receive observed current state, not future simulator states.
Three protocols, three meanings
One-step position error compares a prediction from the true current input with the next independently computed position. Mean absolute error has units of metres. A twelve-step free rollout receives only its initial state and the declared +1/−1 N action schedule; final position discrepancy measures accumulated prediction error.
Control runs twenty exact simulator intervals. Receding-horizon beam search proposes an action using its fitted model; the external evaluator executes that action. A fixed-gain feedback controller supplies a serious comparator. The task succeeds only after all twenty intervals with absolute position below 0.2 m and absolute speed below 0.3 m/s. Low cost, a plausible prediction or an unfinished trace never substitutes for that success rule.
The cost uses squared position, 0.1 times squared speed and a small normalized force penalty. It expresses the stated objective, not physical safety. Model-call totals expose additional planning work. A larger horizon can improve cost while still failing the task threshold or spending substantially more computation.
Change the world without changing the evaluator
Two starts each run nominal and changed dynamics. Nominal mass is 1 kg with linear drag 0.2; changed mass is 1.4 kg with linear drag 0.35. Both retain quadratic drag 0.6 and the same velocity-first interval rule. The model is not refitted on changed outcomes.
The independent evaluator computes and . Here m is mass and d is linear drag; primes denote the next interval. For example, heavier mass changes how much a fixed force changes speed. The planner’s internal prediction cannot alter this external contract.
Freeze, expose and report honestly
Use development comparisons to choose a recipe. Opening reserved starts supplies a separate comparison, but once viewed they are exposed. Public client-side source is inspectable; reserved is a protocol distinction, not secrecy protection. The temporary lesson remembers exposure only during this visit. The saved project retains known exposure and the first reserved recipe through reload and import.
Keep every failed case and distinguish a report with complete fields from independently assessed reasoning. The cumulative project adds separate numerical transfer cases and an implementation bridge. A supported decision to reject model-based planning is a valid conclusion when the baseline is preferable under the declared conditions.
After seeing reserved outcomes you tune the horizon and evaluate again. What is the second result?
Take this idea with you.
A useful model earns its place through external task outcomes against baselines, with frozen choices, retained exposure and declared work.
Explore related topics and the topic map
How this topic connects
Explore this topic on the interactive mapUse these connections to review a foundation or choose where to go next. You can open any topic without completing the others.
What it builds on
- Compare families of world models
Compare research claims by their targets and evidence instead of treating realistic pictures or a model name as proof of useful control.
Freeze a model and planner before comparing prediction, control and changed-dynamics outcomes.
What it enables
- World-model project Apply in a project
Freeze the model/planning recipe and compare predicted outcomes with externally executed control in the saved world-model project.