Lesson 7 of 13 in this unit
Measure variation rather than hiding it.
Separate initialization variation, task clusters and paired differences.
By the end: Separate initialization variation, task clusters and paired differences.
Prerequisites and path options
Why learn this? Use a reproducible comparison to make a bounded claim about measure variation with pairs, while keeping development practice separate from independent review.
Start with something concrete.
Three seeds use the same task data. Do they create three new tasks?
Try the interactive modelThree tasks each have three seeds. How many task clusters are available?
Change one thing. Watch what follows.
Loading this browser experiment…
Understand what changed.
A shorter explanation, with the original worked examples available below. Both explain the same experiment and its limits.
Start with a concrete question
Three seeds use the same task data. Do they create three new tasks?
What to inspect
Read all nine paired rows, then compare task means with the 27-resample interval. Change the feature and identify which task dominates the average.
Match baseline and candidate on the same task, split, seed and budget. Their difference removes some shared difficulty: an easy task should not be paired with a different hard task merely because both occupy the same table row. For baseline errors 8 and 4 and candidate errors 5 and 5, paired improvements are 3 and −1, averaging 1. Reporting only the first task would hide a regression.
Keep the conclusion bounded
This is an exact enumeration of a very small bootstrap illustration, not a trustworthy population confidence guarantee. The tasks are deliberately authored and are not a random sample of a deployment population. More seeds do not fix missing task diversity, shared data bias or a broken metric. Inspect task-level differences, retain every run and describe the sampling assumptions before interpreting uncertainty. Repeated views of the same table do not add evidence.
Open the full worked examples, calculations and limitations
This is the same reference used in Technical mode. Expand it whenever you need the exact numbers, assumptions or further explanation.
Start with the question
Three seeds use the same task data. Do they create three new tasks?
Mechanism and worked comparison
Match baseline and candidate on the same task, split, seed and budget. Their difference removes some shared difficulty: an easy task should not be paired with a different hard task merely because both occupy the same table row. For baseline errors 8 and 4 and candidate errors 5 and 5, paired improvements are 3 and −1, averaging 1. Reporting only the first task would hide a regression.
The browser has three tasks and three initialization seeds per task. Seeds vary starting coefficients while reusing the task data. Average seeds within each task before treating tasks as clusters. The illustrated cluster bootstrap draws three task means with replacement. With three available means there are 3³ = 27 ordered draws; each draw produces another mean. The displayed endpoints use the extreme rounded percentile indices of this tiny discrete distribution.
This is an exact enumeration of a very small bootstrap illustration, not a trustworthy population confidence guarantee. The tasks are deliberately authored and are not a random sample of a deployment population. More seeds do not fix missing task diversity, shared data bias or a broken metric. Inspect task-level differences, retain every run and describe the sampling assumptions before interpreting uncertainty. Repeated views of the same table do not add evidence.
Try and explain
Read all nine paired rows, then compare task means with the 27-resample interval. Change the feature and identify which task dominates the average.
Open the reproducible study project or use the implementation studio.
Three tasks each have three seeds. How many task clusters are available?
Take this idea with you.
Separate initialization variation, task clusters and paired differences.
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How this topic connects
Explore this topic on the interactive mapUse these connections to review a foundation or choose where to go next. You can open any topic without completing the others.
What it builds on
- Evaluation and generalization
Spot improvements caused by repeated test selection rather than better performance on new situations.
Separate initialization variation, task clusters and paired differences.
What it enables
- Reproducible research project Apply in a project
Use the research project to freeze a question, replay all task/seed comparisons and defend a result-linked report with its limitations.