Same people, different order
Does comparing each participant with themselves remove every bias?
Entering midway? Revisit How averaging changes noisy evidence for the preceding worked example, or start here and use the explanation below.
Start with a concrete question
Original synthetic scenario. Six fictional participants try methods A and B. Stable baseline scores differ; practice in the second period changes performance.
Try the initial inputs, then write a prediction before changing one setting. All calculations run locally on your CPU.
What do you expect?
If B is always second, will the mean paired difference equal its actual +3-point benefit?
Change one thing. Inspect what happens.
- At the defaults calculate the mean B−A difference and compare it with the programmed benefit.
- Alternate order and explain which contribution disappears from the mean.
- Increase disturbance while keeping balanced order; compare individual differences with the group mean.
- Write a protocol specifying order assignment, washout or rest, and how you would handle learning carried between periods.
Your settingsMechanism
Calculation belowEvidence
Compare outcomes
Compare the current results
Every bar starts at zero and uses the same numeric scale in this chart. The upper bound automatically adjusts to the largest current value (at least 1), so compare the numbers when changing inputs. Units and quantities come from each label; different kinds of quantity are not interchangeable. Displayed values are rounded to at most six significant digits.Follow the calculation
- Participant 1: A reference 30; effect 3 + order 4 + disturbance -2 gives B−A = 5.000.
- Participant 2: A reference 50; effect 3 + order 4 + disturbance 2 gives B−A = 9.000.
- Participant 3: A reference 40; effect 3 + order 4 + disturbance -1 gives B−A = 6.000.
- Participant 4: A reference 70; effect 3 + order 4 + disturbance 1 gives B−A = 8.000.
- Participant 5: A reference 60; effect 3 + order 4 + disturbance -2 gives B−A = 5.000.
- Participant 6: A reference 80; effect 3 + order 4 + disturbance 2 gives B−A = 9.000.
- Mean paired difference = 42.000 / 6 = 7.000.
Pairing controls stable participant differences, but a common second-period improvement is still confounded with treatment unless order is balanced.
Captures keep your inputs, prediction and observation. Results are recalculated from those inputs. Resetting inputs keeps your captures and challenge history.
Explain the mechanism
What the experiment explains
Original synthetic scenario. Six fictional participants try methods A and B. Stable baseline scores differ; practice in the second period changes performance.
Pairing removes stable between-person differences by subtracting each person’s A reference. It cannot automatically distinguish treatment from time or order.
With B always second, the mean is benefit 3 + practice 4 + mean disturbance 0 = 7 points. With balanced order, practice contributes +4 for half and −4 for half, so the mean returns to 3.
The disturbance pattern is deliberately balanced. In real data it will not cancel exactly, and carryover from the first method may remain even with balanced order.
Read the relationship
Paired difference = B benefit + signed order effect + disturbance. Mean paired difference = sum of six differences / 6.
Inspect the evidence
The numerical trace is recalculated from your current settings. Compare a controlled pair of trials before changing several inputs together. Inspect intermediate quantities as well as final metrics; state which assumptions make the comparison meaningful.
Boundaries of the model
- Fixed balanced disturbances, not a statistical sampling model.
- Order effect is symmetric and constant; carryover and missing participants are not modeled.
Return to the scientific reasoning and experimental design course and project to connect this mechanism to the broader investigation.
Try a fresh case
Four paired differences are 8, 2, 6 and 0 points. What is their mean?
This is a public practice check. Retries support learning; matching a number does not certify independent proficiency.
Take the investigation further
Choose any extension. These are project prompts for you to carry out; they are not automatically assessed.
School investigation
Design a counterbalanced comparison of two sorting instructions using paper cards.
College investigation
Estimate uncertainty for paired differences and test sensitivity to carryover.
Workplace investigation
Choose between parallel and crossover usability studies with explicit reasons and operational constraints.
Keep the evidence, choose your next step
Completion records your own decision that you have worked through this investigation. Practice checks and independent project evidence are separate.