Twenty headlines, one observation
How much new evidence does a repost add?
Entering midway? Revisit Match a claim to its original record for the preceding worked example, or start here and use the explanation below.
Start with a concrete question
An original fictional report counts working water fountains. Reposts repeat it; separately authored inspections observe fountains on later days. No live sources or truth scores are used. The count choice applies only when at least one additional inspection exists.
Try the initial inputs, then write a prediction before changing one setting. All calculations run locally on your CPU.
What do you expect?
Predict whether adding ten reposts changes the number of underlying observations.
Change one thing. Inspect what happens.
- Add reposts and compare published items with underlying observations.
- Add independent inspections and read their dates.
- Introduce a conflicting count; propose two explanations other than dishonesty.
- Sketch the citation chain and write the next verification step.
Your settingsMechanism
Calculation belowEvidence
Compare outcomes
Compare the current results
Every bar starts at zero and uses the same numeric scale in this chart. The upper bound automatically adjusts to the largest current value (at least 1), so compare the numbers when changing inputs. Units and quantities come from each label; different kinds of quantity are not interchangeable. Displayed values are rounded to at most six significant digits.Follow the calculation
- Original report O1: author counted 12 working water fountains on Monday.
- 6 reposts all cite O1; they add no new inspection.
- Independent inspection O2: 12 working fountains on Tuesday; a new observation at a different time.
- A differing count may reflect timing, definitions, or error. Inspect the underlying records before deciding.
Count provenance chains, not just headlines. More independent observations do not automatically settle a claim, and disagreement is a reason to investigate.
Captures keep your inputs, prediction and observation. Results are recalculated from those inputs. Resetting inputs keeps your captures and challenge history.
Explain the mechanism
Twenty headlines, one observation
An original fictional report counts working water fountains. Reposts repeat it; separately authored inspections observe fountains on later days. No live sources or truth scores are used. The count choice applies only when at least one additional inspection exists.
Follow the mechanism
Six reposts plus an original are seven publications but only one underlying inspection. Repetition does not create a new measurement.
Independent inspections add observations, but different dates can mean they measure changed conditions.
A provenance map tells you where a claim came from. It cannot decide source truth automatically; inspect methods, definitions and timing.
Worked example
Original report O1: author counted 12 working water fountains on Monday.
6 reposts all cite O1; they add no new inspection.
Independent inspection O2: 12 working fountains on Tuesday; a new observation at a different time.
A differing count may reflect timing, definitions, or error. Inspect the underlying records before deciding.
Calculation
Published items = 1 original + reposts + additional inspections; distinct observations = 1 + additional inspections.
Try a controlled comparison
Add reposts and compare published items with underlying observations.
Add independent inspections and read their dates.
Introduce a conflicting count; propose two explanations other than dishonesty.
Sketch the citation chain and write the next verification step.
What this does not establish
All reports and inspections are original fictional teaching examples.
Independence is specified by the fixture, not inferred from real sites. Observation counts are not probabilities of truth.
Try a fresh case
Nine articles repeat one report, and three more articles each describe a separate inspection. Including the original report, how many distinct observations are represented?
This is a public practice check. Retries support learning; matching a number does not certify independent proficiency.
Take the investigation further
Choose any extension. These are project prompts for you to carry out; they are not automatically assessed.
School investigation
Trace a harmless factual claim through its citations and note missing dates.
College investigation
Build an evidence table distinguishing primary observations from secondary summaries.
Workplace investigation
Create a verification memo that records provenance, contradictory evidence and unresolved questions.
Keep the evidence, choose your next step
Completion records your own decision that you have worked through this investigation. Practice checks and independent project evidence are separate.