40 practice points.
Question 9: Equal count marginals do not define a process
10 points
For this question, a rate-2 Poisson process N(t), t≥0 in hours, has N(0)=0, independent counts on disjoint time intervals and increment N(t+h)−N(t) distributed Poisson(2h). Its arrival time T₁ satisfies {T₁>t}={N(t)=0}. These are supplied model assumptions, not consequences of a single Poisson marginal.
(a) · 5 points
Find P(N(1)=1,N(3)=4). Derive P(N(1)=1|N(3)=4), explicitly identifying the independent quantities.
(b) · 5 points
Derive the law of T₁. Then let C₁=C₂=Z, where Z is Poisson(2). Each one-hour count has the same marginal as the process. Compare P(C₁=C₂=0) with independent consecutive process counts, and explain why the marginals do not identify a Poisson process.
Review question 9: worked argument and scoring criteria
(a)
N(1) and N(3)−N(1) are independent Poisson(2) and Poisson(4). The joint probability is (2e^(−2))(4³e^(−4)/3!)=(64/3)e^(−6). Divide by P(N(3)=4)=6⁴e^(−6)/4!=54e^(−6) to get 32/81. Equivalently, the conditional count is Binomial(4,1/3), giving 4(1/3)(2/3)³. N(1) and N(3) themselves are not independent.
- 2 points: Uses the correct disjoint increments.
- 1 point: Obtains the joint probability.
- 1 point: Obtains 32/81.
- 1 point: Rejects independence of the nested counts.
(b)
P(T₁>t)=P(N(t)=0)=e^(−2t), t≥0, so T₁ is exponential of rate 2 and mean 1/2 hour. For the shared-count model P(C₁=C₂=0)=P(Z=0)=e^(−2); independent process counts give e^(−4). Thus identical one-hour marginal distributions can have different joint laws. The shared-count construction is a pair of interval counts, not a full continuous-time construction; it already disproves identification from those marginals alone.
- 2 points: Derives survival, rate and mean.
- 2 points: Computes both zero-count probabilities.
- 1 point: States the precise limit of marginal information.
Targeted lesson returns:
Question 10: First-step equations and eventual absorption
10 points
A time-homogeneous Markov chain has states A,B,C,D. From A it moves to B with probability 1/2 and C with probability 1/2. From B it moves to A with probability 1/4, C with probability 1/4 and D with probability 1/2. C and D are absorbing. Conditional on the current state, future transition probabilities do not depend on earlier states. Let T be the number of transitions until first reaching C or D.
(a) · 5 points
Prove absorption occurs almost surely and that E(T) is finite starting from A or B. Then derive and solve first-step equations for the probability of absorption at D.
(b) · 5 points
Compute E_A(T) and E_B(T). Now change only the B row to B→A with probability one. Recompute the D-absorption probability and expected time from A; explain why retaining the old equations is invalid.
Review question 10: worked argument and scoring criteria
(a)
From either transient state the probability of remaining transient for one more transition is at most 1/2. Conditional iteration gives P(T>n)≤(1/2)^n. Hence P(T=∞)=0 and E(T)=Σₙ≥0P(T>n)≤2. Write d_C=0,d_D=1, d_A=d_B/2 and d_B=d_A/4+1/2. Solving gives d_B=4/7 and d_A=2/7. The absorption argument ensures that these events exhaust the eventual outcomes.
- 2 points: Proves the geometric tail bound and finite expectation.
- 2 points: Sets up equations with correct absorbing boundaries.
- 1 point: Solves both probabilities.
(b)
The original equations are t_A=1+t_B/2 and t_B=1+t_A/4, giving t_A=12/7 and t_B=10/7. After the change, D is unreachable from A or B, so its absorption probability is zero. Each two-transition block starting at A survives with probability 1/2, so absorption at C remains almost sure with finite expectation. The new equations t_A=1+t_B/2,t_B=1+t_A give t_A=3,t_B=4. Transition changes alter the future-state mixture while each transition still costs one step; the original B equation no longer describes the model.
- 2 points: Obtains both original mean times.
- 1 point: Identifies the unreachable D outcome.
- 2 points: Justifies finiteness and solves the changed mean-time equations.
Targeted lesson returns:
Question 12: A bounded stopping rule
10 points
ξ₁,ξ₂,… are independent signs, each ±1 with probability 1/2. Set S₀=0 and Sₙ=ξ₁+⋯+ξₙ. Let τ be the first n with Sₙ=2, or infinity if no such n exists. Set T=min(τ,3). The available history at step n is ξ₁,…,ξₙ. For a finite bound m, you may use the pathwise identity S_T=Σⱼ₌₁ᵐ ξⱼ·1{T≥j} when T≤m. Do not assume an optional-stopping theorem for unbounded times.
(a) · 5 points
Enumerate the distribution of S_T and compute its expectation. Explain why the event T≥j is determined before ξⱼ is observed.
(b) · 5 points
Prove E(S_T)=0 for any stopping time bounded by m using the supplied identity and independence. If the cap is removed, explain why this proof does not establish E(S_τ)=0, even if eventual hitting is asserted separately.
Review question 12: worked argument and scoring criteria
(a)
Two initial positive signs hit 2 at time 2 with probability 1/4, giving S_T=2. The other six length-three sign paths have probabilities 1/8 each: +−+ and −++ end at 1; +−−,−+−,−−+ end at −1; −−− ends at −3. Thus probabilities at 2,1,−1,−3 are 1/4,1/4,3/8,1/8, with expectation 1/2+1/4−3/8−3/8=0. T≥j means no stop before j; that is determined by the signs up to j−1, including the fixed cap.
- 3 points: Enumerates all stopped outcomes with their probabilities.
- 1 point: Computes zero expectation.
- 1 point: Identifies the pre-increment information for survival.
(b)
For each j≤m, the indicator 1{T≥j} is determined by the past and independent of ξⱼ, so E[ξⱼ1{T≥j}]=E(ξⱼ)P(T≥j)=0. Linearity for the finite sum gives E(S_T)=0. Removing the cap creates an infinite sum or a limit of stopped sums; exchanging expectation with that limit requires an integrability or uniform-integrability argument, which has not been supplied. If τ is finite almost surely, then S_τ=2 almost surely, so its expectation is 2, not 0. This conditional observation diagnoses the invalid limit step; it is not a proof of almost-sure hitting.
- 3 points: Proves zero expectation using past measurability, independence and a finite sum.
- 1 point: Identifies the unjustified expectation-limit interchange.
- 1 point: Correctly interprets the hypothetical eventual-hitting conclusion.
Targeted lesson returns: