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Mathematics · unit version 1

Joint information and adaptive strategies

Prove which information a probability calculation may use, and bound every admissible strategy in a finite reveal process.

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Readiness and preparation

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Does pairwise independence establish independence from an entire pair?

An observation can reveal a relationship that neither coordinate reveals alone.

Compare reasoning and find a refresher

No. The complete joint law must factor against the pair. Separate marginal product identities do not imply that stronger factorization.

Review joint and pairwise independence

Does an adaptive reveal leave the original color proportions unchanged?

The strategy proof must cover every possible remaining composition.

Compare reasoning and find a refresher

No. Revealing a skipped token changes the remaining counts. Conditional on the revealed prefix, the remaining order is uniform, but its success fraction must be recomputed.

Review the observation mechanism

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Audit joint information and an adaptive reward rule

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Lesson sequence

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  1. Equality events and joint information

    Lesson details and objectives

    Prove what a uniform independent comparison reveals, then distinguish full-pair independence from separate marginal checks.

    • Prove equality-event independence from every event determined by a pair using a disjoint finite sum.
    • Diagnose failures caused by nonuniform comparison values or dependence hidden in the joint pair.
    • Handle support restrictions and zero-probability conditioning without overstating what information remains independent.

    6 practice tasks.

  2. Prove what adaptive stopping can and cannot change

    Lesson details and objectives

    Compare stopping and revealing through a full-state induction, then identify the information and cost changes that break equal strategy values.

    • Prove every legal next-unseen-token strategy has the same success probability using all remaining compositions.
    • Condition on revealed histories without claiming independent draws or unchanged color proportions.
    • Distinguish nonanticipating decisions from peeking and derive the effect of nonnegative skip costs.

    6 practice tasks.